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Global warming: world is heading for 2.4 degrees

If all the climate protection measures taken so far are implemented as planned, global warming will be 2.4 degrees by the end of the century - well above the desired 1.5 degree target. This is the result of a forecast by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analysis project, which climate researcher Niklas Höhne and Federal Environment Minister Svenja Schulze (SPD) presented in Berlin on Tuesday.

The latest projections are 0.2 degrees below older estimates, as some states have since announced stronger climate protection efforts. Nevertheless, the measures are still insufficient to reduce global warming to the desired level. If none of the planned steps were implemented from now on, the forecast temperature in 2100 would even be 2.9 degrees. In an »optimistic scenario« with far-reaching measures to protect the climate, however, the earth would be 2.0 degrees warmer by the end of the century.

131 states have currently set goals to become climate neutral, said Höhne. That covers 73 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. In order to meet the recommendations of the Paris Climate Agreement from 2015, the temperature rise may not exceed 1.5 degrees by the end of the century. According to the findings of the Climate Action Tracker, all global emissions would have to be halved by 2030.

At the moment it doesn't look like it, said Höhne, even if it would be physically and technically possible. "There is a huge gap between aspiration and reality." It is pleasing that countries like the USA, Great Britain and Argentina have set themselves more ambitious climate targets. Others, including Australia and Brazil, would fall well short of expectations. So far, not a single country has set sufficient short-term reduction targets, the scientist concluded. (dpa / rga)